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From Green Deal to Green Recovery

While the COVID-19 crisis has seen unprecedented challenges for the European transport sector, it also demonstrated the crucial role transport plays to ensure an uninterrupted supply of goods and services across Europe. Although the recovery of the sector is of vital importance of Europe’s economy, the recovery from the crisis also provides a momentum for the industry to act on the ambition of decarbonization and reaching climate neutrality by 2050. As put forward in the Commission’s EU Recovery Plan, the COVID-19 recovery phase should be used to pave the way towards not only a resilient and reliable transport sector, but also a sustainable one that is at the heart of the European Green Deal.

Following the publication of the Commission’s plan for recovery – dubbed as ‘Next Generation EU’ – as well as its updated Work Program for 2020, we have a clearer picture how the greening of the sector will unfold in the coming years. Dr2 Consultants’ transport team presents four take-aways for sustainable transport that will dominate the EU’s policy agenda in the years to come.

1. Alternative fuels, sustainable vehicles

Alternative fuels are a key priority for the Commission to cut emissions and create jobs. The EU’s executive arm aims to accelerate the production of low-emission fuels and the deployment of sustainable vehicles and vessels. In order to finance this, public investment should come with a commitment from the industry to invest in cleaner and more sustainable mobility.

The roadmaps for the further deployment of different fuel types are expected to be part of the highly-anticipated FuelEU proposals – to be published later this year – that will aim at increasing the use of alternative fuels in the maritime and aviation sector. Furthermore, in early 2021, the Commission will put forward the revision of the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Directive, which will ensure the development of the necessary infrastructure across Member States to stimulate the uptake of sustainable fuels for all transport modes. 

2. The convergence of the energy and mobility systems

In order to decarbonize the transport sector, no stone is currently left unturned. Although electrification seems to be the most viable option on the short term, hydrogen is dubbed as the energy source for the future. The Commission’s flagship instrument for research and innovation, Horizon Europe, will be instrumental to kick-start the clean hydrogen revolution. The Commission has increased its budget in the new Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) with €13.5 billion, bringing Horizon Europe’s new budget to a total of €94.4 billion.

Later this month, the Commission will launch the Clean Hydrogen Alliance to stimulate the upscaling of clean hydrogen production in Europe. Also, the work of the European Battery Alliance will be accelerated. On 24 June, the Hydrogen Strategy is expected to be published.

3. Cities at the heart of sustainable mobility

With over 70% of EU citizens currently living in urban areas, achieving sustainability in cities across Europe is one of the main challenges of the recovery period. As a direct result of the COVID-19 crisis, noise pollution and air quality figures have dropped to an unprecedented level. Moreover, cities reinvented the way citizens move around, e.g. by giving priorities to pedestrians, introducing speed limits for vehicles and implementing new cycling lanes. The shift towards smart and more livable cities, therefore, places a big responsibility on the transport sector.

The Commission aims to increase the support for zero and low-emission mobility in cities by investing significantly in clean urban mobility. Funding calls in the Connecting Europe Facility (CEF) and InvestEU programs will focus on clean fleet renewals by cities, the deployment of charging points and mobility-as-a-service solutions.

4. Taxation, anyone?

In the Next Generation EU, the Commission proposes to generate additional own resources by new taxes. Although the Commission still must draw up the specifics, it floated the option of extending the EU’s Emissions Trading System (ETS) to the maritime sector, thereby raising up to €10 billion annually that will feed into the EU’s budget. In addition, the so-called carbon border adjustment mechanism is likely to be introduced, putting a carbon levy on non-EU imports.

Raising these kinds of ‘European’ taxes is unprecedented. As Member States have diverging views on this matter, it remains to be seen whether we can expect a breakthrough on these new own resources any time soon.

Next steps

The Commission aims to have the new MFF and recovery fund operational by 1 January 2021. EU leaders are expected to start the negotiations on the budget proposal during the European Council Summit on 19 June and will have multiple rounds of very difficult talks until a compromise is made. This ultimately means that the budget as proposed now for transport-related funding instruments can still change. The budget negotiations are expected to accelerate when Germany takes over the rotating six-months Presidency of the Council of the EU on 1 July 2020.

The EU Budget proposal and its impact on the digital sector

On 27 May, the European Commission put forward its proposal for a major recovery plan. The plan includes not only a proposal for the EU’s Multiannual Financial Framework for 2021-2027 – The EU budget powering the recovery plan for Europe, but the European Commission also proposes to create a new recovery instrument, Next Generation EU.

Next Generation EU, with a budget of €750 billion, together with targeted reinforcements to the 2021-2027 EU budget with a proposed budget of €1.1 trillion, will bring the total financial firepower of the EU budget to €1.85 trillion. Including other schemes such as Support to mitigate Unemployment Risks in an Emergency (Commission’s safety net for workers), the European Stability Mechanism Pandemic Crisis Support (Eurozone’s enhanced credit line) and the European Investment Bank Guarantee Fund for Workers and Businesses (focused primarily on small and medium-sized companies), with a combined budget of €540 billion, significant funds will be available for European recovery.

Next Generation EU will raise money by temporarily lifting the European Commission’s own resources ceiling to 2.00% of EU Gross National Income, allowing the Commission to use its strong credit rating to borrow €750 billion on the financial markets. To help do this in a fair and shared way, the Commission proposes a number of new own resources among which extension of the EU Emission Trading System (ETS) to include maritime and aviation sectors, a carbon border adjustment mechanism, a digital tax and a tax on large enterprises.

Finally, the Commission has published an update of its 2020 Work Program, which will prioritize the actions needed to propel Europe’s recovery and resilience.

The future is digital

The outbreak of COVID-19 has highlighted the importance of digitization across all areas of the economy and society. New technologies have helped businesses and public services to keep functioning and have made sure that international trade could continue. It is expected that, in the long run, the pandemic will have triggered permanent social and economic changes: more remote working, e-learning, e-commerce, e-government. It has, therefore, become imperative for businesses and governments to invest in digitalization.

The twin transitions to a green and digital Europe remain the defining challenges of this generation. This is reflected throughout the Commission’s proposals, which stress that investing in digital infrastructure and skills will help boost competitiveness and technological sovereignty.

Implications for the digital sector

A new instrument, the Solvency Support instrument would be primarily aimed at countries hit hardest by the crisis and unable to provide state aid to their most vulnerable sectors. The distribution of this ‘immediate and temporary’[1] tool will also aim to prioritize green investment according to the Commission. While welcomed by poorer countries the instrument might not have the desired effect unless agreed upon and deployed quickly by the Member States.

The Strategic Investment Facility will be used to promote the green and digital transitions by investing in 5G, artificial intelligence, the industrial internet of things, low CO2 emission industry and cybersecurity. Since such investments might become significantly riskier in the aftermath of the pandemic, the Commission stands behind a common European approach to provide the crucial long-term investments for companies implementing projects of strategic importance. The Strategic Investment Facility will take a more forward-looking approach by focusing on ‘projects relevant for achieving strategic autonomy in key value chains in the single market.

The Digital Europe Programme will be used for the development of EU-wide electronic identities and for the building of strategic data capabilities, such as artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, secured communication, data and cloud infrastructure, 5G and 6G networks, supercomputers, quantum and blockchain. The Commission has managed to withstand the significant pressure from Member States to reduce the funding of the Programme and the digital transition remains one of its key priorities.

In terms of financial inputs, the digital sector would be affected by two of the newly proposed taxes, aimed at funding the Commission’s so called ‘own resources’ used to repay the recovery package. The new digital tax would come into play at EU level if no global solution could be reached at OECD level. If the tax is applied to companies with an annual turnover higher than €750 million, it could generate up to €1.3 billion per year for the EU budget. The other relevant provision is the new corporate revenue tax, which if applied according to the same principle as the digital tax at a rate of 0.1 percent could generate up to €10 billion annually.

The Commission tried to introduce a European digital tax last year but its proposal was blocked by several Member States. The chance of such a proposal being accepted at this date appear slim as unanimity is required and Ireland, amongst others, has been adamantly against it. However, with the departure of the UK who had previously provided strong backing for Ireland’s opposition, some form of digital taxation being accepted remains a possibility. The new corporate tax was also previously unsuccessfully introduced by the Commission in 2016 and would be aimed at ‘companies that draw huge benefits from the EU single market and will survive the crisis.’[2] The chances of the proposal being accepted are also relatively low with countries such as Ireland, Denmark, Luxembourg and the Netherlands strongly opposing it. The proposal might also provoke a ‘race to the bottom’ phenomenon where companies relocate to countries willing to provide them with the most favorable business conditions. While both taxes are facing strong opposition from some Member States, the alternative of increased national contributions might convince leaders that accepting a form of these levies would be the more politically savvy option.

In conclusion, the new EU budget proposal creates new opportunities and challenges for the digital sector with the potential application of new pan-European taxes but also with additional funding devoted to digitalization, increased connectivity and sustainable value chains. The Coronavirus pandemic has demonstrated the increasing importance of digitalisation for the daily functioning of the economy and the Commission’s proposal reflects that through a series of digital political priorities. Increased connectivity, investment in strategic digital capacities (artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, data and cloud infrastructure, 5G and 6G networks, blockchain and more) building a real data economy and legislative efforts on data sharing (a EU-wide Data Act), as well as a thorough reform of the single market for digital services (Digital Services Act expected in late 2020). The combination of budgetary provisions and policy priorities makes the moment beneficial for a transition to online business models, a trend which has appeared during the pandemic but is expected to remain for the next few years.

[1] Annex to the Commission Budget Communication, p 6.

[2] Commission Budget Communication, p 15.

Bold sustainability ambitions in the European Union

Already in July, Ursula von der Leyen made clear that the new European Commission has bold ambitions to tackle climate change: The European Union must become an example of how to live sustainably. In this regard, energy efficiency and circular economy are central to the European way of life.

Frans Timmermans and the European Green Deal

The European Green Deal will be the guide for this ambitious transition, targeting among other things, an emission reduction of 50% to 55% by 2030. This target is about 10-15% higher than the current 2030 climate and energy framework. The Commissioner in charge of the Green Deal will be the Dutchman, Frans Timmermans, who also holds the position of first Executive Vice-President of the next European Commission. In his hearing in the European Parliament on 8 October, he urged the European Parliament to be ambitious and lead by example in the world. To make a real difference with regards to global warming, the EU needs to focus on talks with its global partners, according to Timmermans. He feels like he has got a strong mandate, since according to statistics, 9 out of 10 European citizens want the EU to act decisively on climate change.

Concretely, Timmermans will propose a draft Climate Law within the first 100 days of his mandate. This law will put into legislation the EU’s climate ambitions, but most importantly determine the in between steps to be taken to reach these goals. Timmermans is strongly considering using infringement procedures against Member States not complying with the EU’s upcoming climate laws and its ambitions. Furthermore, the Climate Pact will engage citizens with the EU’s climate policy which would make legislation seem less ‘top-down’.

Virginijus Sinkevičius and the European Circular Economy

Three years after its adoption, the Circular Economy Action Plan can be considered fully completed. Its 54 actions have now been delivered or are being implemented. Together with Timmermans, Lithuanian Virginijus Sinkevičius will however increase the ambitions in the field of the circular economy. Sinkevičius stated during his hearing in the European Parliament on 3 October that if the EU ensured the complete circular use of just four materials (steel, aluminum, cement and plastic) – which goes further than the existing Circular Economy Action Plan – EU’s industrial emissions would be cut in half.

Sinkevičius believes that a new action plan can involve three major areas:

  • First, by examining the ways in which the EU produces and consumes. He mentioned particular further action on eco-design and more focus on reuse and repair. This strand could also integrate circularity in other sectors such as textiles, construction, food and ICT.
  • Second, by helping consumers make informed choices.
  • Third, by moving beyond recycling. Waste should not only be minimized, but prevented completely in areas such as textiles and construction.

Environment Council

Not only the European Commission wants to increase the European ambitions regarding climate change and sustainability, but also the Council realizes their importance. On 4 October, Environment Ministers held a debate on the EU’s strategic long-term vision for a climate neutral economy and adopted conclusions on climate change, which set out the EU’s position for the UN climate change meetings (COP25) in Chile in December 2019. The Council called for action to promote circularity systemically across the value chain, including from the consumer perspective, in key sectors including textiles, transport, food as well as construction and demolition. The Council also stressed the need for more measures on batteries and plastics.

 

 

 

 

Brexit: Searching for a new leader

The resignation of Prime Minister Theresa May last week could not save the Conservative Party in the European elections. It was quite clear that the Brexit Party of Nigel Farage is the winning party, gaining 29 seats. The Liberal Democrats took 16 seats, the Labour Party 10, the Green Party 7, the Conservative Party 4, the Scottish National Party 3 and Plaid Cymru 1.

As the election results were devastating for the traditional parties, Labour deputy leader, Tom Watson, indicated that the Brexit stance of Labour costed Labour a lot of votes. In particular, the unclear position of Labour towards a second referendum. In addition, shadow chancellor John McDonnell, one of Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s closest political allies, told the BBC another referendum may be the only way to break the Brexit deadlock in Parliament.

But Brexit did not only had a huge effect on the elections in the UK, but actually in the whole European Union, at least that is what President of the European Council Donald Tusk claimed at yesterday’s informal European Council summit. Tusk argued that Brexit acted as a “vaccine” against Euroscepticism and, therefore, helped to limit the profit of anti-EU parties. Tusk also added that he is not optimistic about the future of Brexit, because “we are all aware of the state of things in London.” A no-deal scenario or the UK revoking Article 50 remains likely. Influential Tories, Boris Johnson and Dominic Raab, are for example still willing to leave the EU without a deal.

In the meantime, the European Union is preparing itself for Brexit, with or without a deal. When Theresa May offered her resignation last week, EU leaders already warned that nothing had changed in Brussels. The Dutch Prime Minister, Mark Rutte, is one official who said the EU would never reopen negotiations on the Brexit divorce deal, whoever succeeded May. Furthermore, a spokeswoman for the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, said that “Brussels’s position on the withdrawal agreement has been set out, there is no change to that.” In addition, Sabine Weyand, Deputy Chief Negotiator and right hand of Michel Barnier within the European Commission’s Article 50 Taskforce, has been appointed today as the new Director-General of Directorate-General Trade. This indicates that the European Union is preparing itself for the next step in the Brexit process as Weynand will lead the EU’s negotiations with the UK on its future trade relationship in the post Brexit phase.

What’s next?

It is still unclear if there will be a vote on the Withdrawal Agreement Bill next week as Theresa May announced earlier. For the time being the focus is more on the possible successor of May. Tory MPs have until 10 June to put their name forward, and the party hopes a new leader will be in place by the end of July. In addition, a possible general election seems unlikely. Foreign Secretary, Jeremy Hunt, already said that the Conservative Party would commit “political suicide” if a general election was held.

 

Brexit: the eye of the storm

After weeks of talks between the Conservatives and Labour to find a compromise Brexit deal to pass in the House of Commons, the dialogue collapsed without agreement. However, this came as no surprise as it was already clear that the two main parties are deeply divided over Brexit. In addition, the cross-party cooperation was not supported by backbenchers of either parties.

The failure of the cross-party dialogue, exacerbated by Theresa May’s own unstable position and increasing pressure from her colleagues to leave, incentivized May to announce that she will set a timetable for her departure. Before departing, May will still try to avoid British MEPs actually having to take up their seats in the European Parliament after the elections held today (Thursday, 23 May). She will also push for the new Withdrawal Agreement Bill to be voted on in June. As a compromise in the negotiations with Labour, the new Brexit deal would include a provision that states the UK Parliament has the final say on the backstop. Additionally, the bill would also grant Westminster the power to weigh on the future relationship between the EU and UK.

As May feels pressurized, she even announced a concession on a second Brexit referendum during a keynote speech in London. Concretely, a vote for a second referendum would be possible if her new Withdrawal Agreement Bill passes onto the next stage of the legislative process. In that case, May wants to give anti-Brexit MPs the chance to add the option of a second referendum to the new bill once it has gone through its second reading, a stage where MPs can attach amendments.

It seems that May is able to survive the latest storm, but for how long? After a lot of rumours, it was not the Prime Minister, but leader of the House of Commons Andrea Leadsom who announced she quits the government over Brexit and May’s handling of the process. Her resignation is the 36th by a minister under May and the 21st minister to quit over Brexit. Political pundits believe May’s resignation could be announced in a matter of just a few days.

What’s next?

The Conservatives are expected to perform badly in the European elections. Perhaps a departure of Prime Minister Theresa May after the elections could be a way to end a disastrous chapter in Tory/UK history and open up a new, more hopeful one. More ministerial resignations could still follow too, but not today. Today is voting time.

23 May: Kick off European Parliament Election

Today, the European Parliamentary elections kick off with citizens going to the polls in two Member States, namely the Netherlands and the United Kingdom (UK). As the UK has been granted a ‘flextension’, meaning that the Brexit deadline has been extended until 31 October, the UK is now obliged to participate in the elections. This also means that the number of MEPs will remain 751 instead of 705. However, the British government is trying to avoid that British MEPs will actually take their seats.

One of the first things to keep an eye on is the turnout. In recent years the turnout has drastically decreased which only seems to confirm that for many people the European elections remain second-order elections.

With regard to the seat allocation of the new European Parliament, there is only a small chance that the existing informal majority of the European People’s Party (EPP) and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) will continue. Both parties are predicted to lose many seats: the latest poll predicts the EPP to lose 48 seats, while the S&D is likely to lose 39 seats. Combined, they would lose 87 seats which would mean that the traditional parties have a shortage of 61 seats to form a majority. In addition, it is not clear what Fidesz, the party of Hungarian President Viktor Orbán which is currently suspended from the EPP, is going to do after the elections. The third biggest group, the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) together with  La République En Marche! (LREM)  of French President Emmanuel Macron will form the new “Renaissance” group, which would have 105 seats in the new European Parliament. Some look to the Greens-EFA as a possible coalition partner for the traditional parties, but a working majority between the EPP, the S&D and the Greens-EFA will be difficult as the latter are predicted to win only 55 seats and furthermore, their positions are diverging in various topics.

At this moment in time, it is clear that there is no real ‘winner’ and the European Parliament is expected to be more divided than ever: the appearance of new parties will add to the division. The Italian 5 Stars Movement announced they will leave the Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy (EFDD) group and Deputy Prime Minister of Italy and Minister of the Interior Matteo Salvini established another new party, the European Alliance of People and Nations (ex-ENF). Salvini’s group is now projected to have 74 seats according to Politico and will consequently be the fourth biggest in the next European Parliament. In addition, the Brexit Party of Nigel Farage (ex-UKIP) and other new and unaffiliated parties will most likely take away a few seats from the currently bigger groups. On top of this,  the eventual exit of the UK will be detrimental to the total number of seats of both the S&D and the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR).

A fragmented European Parliament with more radical parties will make it difficult for MEPs to find allies within the groups and will consequently make decision-making in the only directly elected EU institution challenging.

European elections 2019: The French perspective

As the European elections are approachingFrench political parties have a lot to debate about in the upcoming days. This time however, the issues that are debated, as well as the political parties involved, look somehow slightly – not too say radically – different from what France has been used to, particularly since the election of Emmanuel Macron as President of the French Republic. 

The end of the left-right political spectrum? 

Since the French presidential election in 2017, French voters have witnessed a change in their country’s political spectrum as every political debate in France over European politics seems now to revolve around France’s two main political parties: President Emmanuel Macron’s La République en Marche (LREM) and Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National (RN). However, these two parties cannot be identified as traditional left-wing or right-wing parties since neither LREM nor RN want to position themselves on a left-right political spectrum. Indeed, Macron’s party proudly supports unapologetic pro-European liberal policies while RN openly wants to put forward an anti-EU and protectionist agenda. French politics do not seem to be about left or right anymore, but rather on who is a pro-European liberal and who is not. 

Towards a clash between liberals and anti-liberals 

Over the past fifty years, French politics have barely known a situation in which at least one of the two traditional parties (France’s Parti Socialiste or the French right-wing party Les Républicains) was neither in first nor in second position in the polls for the European elections. Even though the latest polls slightly differ on who will be the other one’s challenger, LREM and RN will probably reach at least 20% of French voters respectively, giving them the certainty to have a minimum of 20 seats each in the next European Parliament (and a few more in the case of Brexit). A recent poll even predicted Marine Le Pen’s victory over Macron’s pro-European party with 24% for RN against 21.5% for LREM, setting the scene for a clash between a liberal vision of Europe and an anti-liberal one. Other French parties are lagging behind with 14% for France’s right-wing party Les Républicains (LR) and with around 8% for La France Insoumise, Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s radical left party. Right behind are the Greens of Europe-Écologie Les Verts (EELV) with 7%, closely followed by France’s traditional left-wing party, the Parti Socialiste, which has rarely been so low in the pollswith only 5%. 

Immigration, climate change, taxation 

The acknowledgement of the recent renewal of France’s political spectrum should however not make one forget that the topics discussed in France have also moved from rather traditional issues (employment, housing, economy) to more trending ones such as the fight against climate change, immigration, and taxation. While debating over Europe at the beginning of Aprillead French candidates put forward their respective ideas on how the EU should be reformed. Regarding immigration, RN’s young lead candidate Jordan Bardella (23 years) exposed his will to stop migrants at national borders while LREM’s Nathalie Loiseau, ex-Minister for European Affairs under President Macron, declared she only wanted the EU’s external borders to be reinforced”. As far as the environment was concerned, all the candidates agreed on the need to tackle this issue even though they differed on the concrete actions to be implemented. Lead candidate for La France Insoumise Manon Aubry stated that as rich multinational companies were “for the most part responsible of CO2 emissions”, they should be the ones to pay the biggest amount of taxes to finance the fight against climate change. 

The challenge of participation 

As no one can precisely predict which party will be the winner of the European elections in France, it is very likely that the abstention rate reaches at least 50%. Some polls even foretell a rate of 60% of abstentionism for the upcoming elections (77% among young French voters) compared to only 42.4% in 2014. More than ever, French political parties’ main challenge remains to reach out to these undecided voters in hope for a victory.  

The European elections in Hungary

Hungary joined the EU in 2004. The country’s political landscape, however, has drastically changed since then. Hungary was at the forefront of the end of communism, when the Iron Curtain fell in 1989, and in the same year, the country transitioned from a communist party system to democracy after its constitution was heavily amended in 1989 and democratic elections took place in 1990. Since then, Hungary has been a democratic republic with a unicameral Parliament. However, many constitutional amendments enacted since the conservative Fidesz-KDNP party alliance won parliamentary elections in 2010, which has led to a democratic backslide.

Ever since, the country has been driven into a one-party system, with almost all power wielded by the prime minister and Fidesz political leader, Viktor Orban.

For the forthcoming European Parliamentary elections, Fidesz runs its campaign with a limited program: it basically consists of seven sentences about migration and protecting the Christian culture of Europe. With the very same messages, they were able to win a majority of the votes in last year’s governmental elections. This is due to the fact that of all EU members, Hungary has the worst press freedom after Bulgaria, according to Reporters without Borders. Moreover, the country also ranks as the second most corrupt, better than Bulgaria but worse than Romania (which like Bulgaria, is under EU supervision under the so-called Cooperation and Verification Mechanism). Orban and his Fidesz party have launched a serious media campaign already years ago, which peaked in an anti-immigration media campaign that featured unflattering photos of European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and billionaire philanthropist George Soros earlier this year.

Not surprisingly, this resulted in serious criticism from politicians all over Europe and after a heated debate in Brussels in mid-March, and Fidesz’s membership was suspended by the European Parliament’s biggest grouping, EPP.

Nevertheless, the most recent projections suggest Orban’s Fidesz party will comfortably win the European elections with over 50% of the votes. This would result in 12-13 MEP seats. It is not yet clear if the EPP would benefit from these seats, as no decision has been made over the suspension and the future membership of Fidesz after the elections. Furthermore, Orban recently met with Italy’s Matteo Salvini and although no concrete plans were announced, it is clear that the two have been in agreement over their vision for Europe – particularly on migration.

The opposition parties are lagging far behind Fidesz: the far-right Jobbik and the right-wing MSZP, which currently poll between 11-14% in various polls could each win three seats in the new European Parliament. In the case of MSZP, these would go to the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D). Jobbik does not currently belong to any European political grouping.

The last party with a chance of gaining seats is the social liberal DK, led by former Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsány. It could potentially gain two MEPs for the S&D. Two parties that poll below the electoral threshold of 5% might possibly have a chance of securing an MEP: the green LMP, followed by the social-liberal Momentum. The upstart liberal party, Momentum has top candidates including Katalin Cseh, member of ALDE’s Team Europe.

The turnout for the elections is predicted to be below 30%, which is also thanks to this anti-EU propaganda of Fidesz.